COVID-19 daily averages on the decline in Oregon
Published 6:00 am Thursday, May 28, 2020
LA GRANDE — Statewide data indicates Oregon may be past the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
The number of overall COVID-19 cases in Oregon did pass 4,000 Wednesday, but the number of new daily cases is at its lowest rate since late March, when the virus took off in Oregon.
The rolling seven- and 14-day averages for new COVID-19 cases are at or near their lowest in two months, according to data The Observer compiled from OregonLive and the Oregon Health Authority.
The seven-day average of new cases in the state was at 33.9 as of Wednesday — even with the addition of 71 cases Wednesday, the highest total in more than a week. It was the fourth time in five days the average number of new cases was less than 40, and the lowest since March 26, when the average was 32 cases per day. That was right at the precipice of when Oregon saw its spike in cases.
The average count of new daily cases was in the 60s and 70s for the majority of April, but May 10 was the peak. That day, the state had 68 new cases but moved the weeklong average to 78, according to OregonLive, as it was on the heels of a six-day stretch with at least 73 cases — the worst period during the pandemic.
The average has been on a steady decline since then, dipping back below 70 on May 15, below 60 just two days later and below 50 on May 21. On May 23, the average broke below 40, and after a brief jump back up to 43 on Sunday, it again dropped below 40, reaching 37, and fell even lower on Tuesday to 34.4, when just 18 new cases were added.
It’s the latest encouraging number as the state looks to make moves toward a sense of normalcy after shutdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus ravaged the state’s economy. The number also is encouraging due to the fact the average is decreasing even as the number of coronavirus tests in Oregon is on the rise. The nine highest totals of tests administered in the state have all come since May 8. OHA reported Wednesday that the weekly number of tests last week was up 5% over the previous week, with more than 17,000 tests administered, while the number of positive cases last dropped more than 25% for the second week in a row.
The 14-day average also has been on a steady decline.
That tally actually peaked on April 9 at 71.8 cases. It held at near 70 for a few days before breaking below 60 and bottoming out at 53.7 on April 28. New infections saw another rise, and the average peaked at 69.7 on May 16 before dropping again. The 14-day average hit 43.5 Tuesday, the lowest since March 31 when it was at 44.6, then ticked up to 44.4 Wednesday. The last time it was below 40 was March 30.
Five of the lowest daily positive counts since late March also have come in the last 11 days, which accounts for the drop in the average daily case total, with the lowest number at 11 on May 17. That’s followed by 16 cases on the 21st, 18 cases on the 26th, 22 cases on the 25th and 24 cases on the 23rd. Prior to that, Oregon had not seen a day with fewer than 30 cases since March 24, when there were 18 new confirmations.
Monday’s and Tuesday’s combined total of 40 was the lowest consecutive-day tally since March 19 and 20, and it was the first time with consecutive days with fewer than 25 cases since March 21 and 22.
Currently, 1,981 individuals statewide are listed as having recovered from the illness. It has claimed the lives of 148 people, and 1,909 cases are listed as active.
Union County, which has seen six cases, currently has just one active case. Wallowa County has two cases, one of which is active.
Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas and Marion counties — the four hardest-hit counties in Oregon — currently account for 83.5% of all active cases in the state. Twenty counties currently have five or fewer active cases, and 23 counties have 10 or fewer.