At 8 p.m. Tuesday, Oregonians were supposed to start getting some answers to questions that have hung over the state for two years. 

Instead, a repeat of vote counting problems in the state’s third most populous county will mean at least a day’s delay in tallying races for governor and the open 5th Congressional District seat that runs from Portland to Bend.

The Oregonian reported Monday night that Clackamas County Clerk Sherry Hall announced the county of over 412,000 residents will issue a first round of vote counts at 8 p.m., along with the rest of the state.

But Hall said a second batch won’t be released until 6 p.m. on Wednesday, long after most counties have revised their vote totals several times over.

The May 2022 primary election was marred by blurred ballots purchased by the county that led Hall to repeatedly delay returns in key races.

The delay shouldn’t impact races beyond Clackamas County, according to Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan’s office. 

The time gap will leave key revolving around some key races hanging into Wednesday and perhaps beyond:

Red wave, red ripple or red mirage? Republicans have been forecast to have a strong showing in the election. But there has been wobble in specific races. 

Will the 40-year election winning streak of Democrats in races for governor continue with the election of Democrat Tina Kotek? Or will Christine Drazan become the first Republican governor since Vic Atiyeh won a second term in 1982? 

Oregon’s vote-by-mail system will largely negate the record-challenging cold forecast for election day. But it may make the “watch parties” for Democrats in Portland and Republicans in Silverton, plus local gatherings elsewhere, frigid affairs.

Rare national battleground

Oregon has been a reliably “blue” Democratic stronghold for most races in the past decade and more. But 2022 has Oregon at the center of the national political balance of power. Democrats hold a 220-212 majority, with three vacant seats in the U.S. House. Oregon’s three open congressional seats are all in play. Forecast in the 4th district that includes Eugene, Corvallis and Roseburg, and the 6th district around Salem have trended better for Democrats. But the 5th district that runs from Portland over the Cascades to Bend, has been forecast as a highly likely Republican flip of a Democratic seat. That would aid Republicans in taking back the House, which they lost in the 2018 election.

Three to two in governor’s race?

The three-way race for governor between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson has shifted in the past month to a primarily two-candidate race between Kotek and Drazan, polls show. An Emerson College poll, which is rated by FiveThirtyEight as relatively highly accurate, showed Kotek with a slight lead on Drazan, while Johnson’s mark of up to 27% in some polls over the summer has deflated to 5% in the Emerson College poll. The race remains too close to call and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system means many ballots were cast before the current polls came out.

Legislative largesse too late?

Oregon Republicans have outpaced Democrats in spending on state legislative races, with the GOP particularly targeting the Senate.

In the past few days, legislative Democrats have received an infusion of money from national party groups, as well as mega-donors such as billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

But the money arrives at a time when many ballots are already returned or on their way to county clerks.

Will the late cash dash help Democrats, who currently hold 18 Senate seats. The three-fifths supermajority allows for passing tax and financial legislation without Republican help. 

Aided by the new independent Bring Balance to Salem PAC, the GOP has taken aim at knocking Democrats under the three-fifth supermajority and perhaps even taking a narrow majority – or more likely a 15-15 split – of the Senate.

Key races to watch include Senate District 3, where Sen. Jeff Golden, D-Ashland, is a rare southern Oregon Democrat, and the open 16th district seat formerly held by Johnson, who resigned to run for governor. That district includes Tillamook and Columbia counties, which are “pivot counties,” the small number of the nation’s over 3,000 counties that voted for Barack Obama for president twice, then went for Donald Trump twice.

Other races the GOP is targeting include Senate District 10 in Salem and a longer-shot bid for the Democratic-leaning Senate District 15 around Hillsboro.

Tight races could mean long waits

Oregon changed its voting law so that ballots that are postmarked Nov. 8 or earlier can be counted if they arrive at county clerks’ offices by Nov. 15. The final ballots to be scanned won’t register in the state system until the following day. 

Look east early

At 6 p.m. Pacific Standard Time, the polls close in New York and Iowa. The results in one district in each state may be an early indication of how things could turn out in Oregon’s closest races.

The national election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight listed Oregon’s 5th Congressional District as one of the 10 key districts in the nation that will reflect which party will control the U.S. House.

The Oregon race is between Terrebonne attorney Jaime McLeod-Skinner for the Democrats and former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer for Republicans.

Polls closing two hours before Oregon in two other districts on the list could be early indications of how the 5th district race will go – and with it, control of the U.S. House.  

The 22nd Congressional District in New York is an open seat centered around Syracuse. It has a slight Democratic voter registration tilt. Republican Brandon Williams was leading in most polls until recently when Democrat Francis Conole closed the gap. If the race can be called at 6 p.m., it could be a trend-setter depending on who wins.

The 3rd Congressional District in Iowa includes the city of Des Moines as well as some of the poorest rural areas in the southwest of the state. It has a “purple” political hue – a mix of urban Democrats and rural Republicans. The GOP nominee, Zach Nunn is looking to oust U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne, D-West Des Moines, in a race for a seat in a district significantly redrawn by redistricting. FiveThirtyEight gives Axne a 47% chance of winning – while in the Oregon race, McLeod-Skinner is rated at 46%. Polls also close at 6 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. Political prognosticators can extrapolate the outcome to the Oregon race. Especially if one party wins in both New York and Washington.

As Ontario goes, so goes Oregon?

Malheur County polls will close an hour earlier than the rest of the state, at 7 p.m. Pacific Standard Time. It’s the only one of Oregon’s 36 counties in the Mountain Time Zone, as much of the economy has neighboring Boise, Idaho as its market hub. It’s the home of U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, who is up for re-election in the heavily Republican 2nd Congressional District. While the polls close an hour earlier than the rest of the state, the county clerk won’t send results to the Oregon Secretary of State until 9 p.m.  — that’s 8 p.m. Pacific Standard Time, the same as other counties.