Oregon retail sales have cooled – does that foretell chilly holiday shopping?

Published 3:00 pm Monday, December 4, 2023

PORTLAND — Oregon shoppers got more thrifty this year, reversing a post-pandemic trend and perhaps suggesting a subdued holiday shopping season in the weeks ahead.

Oregon retail sales have been in decline for much of this year, the first drops since the spring of 2020. Retail sales were down as much as 3.1% last summer, according to the most recent data from the number crunchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (Nationally, sales were down about 1%.)

That’s a big turnaround from the prior two years, when Oregon retail sales surged at an annual rate above 10%. Oregon’s numbers closely parallel national trends, reflecting an increase in disposable income from federal stimulus payments and the economic boom that set in as COVID-19 waned.

Fewer people are working in Oregon stores, too. Retail employment was down 1.1% in October compared to year earlier, according to the latest numbers from the Oregon Employment Department.

Retail is one of the few categories of Oregon job still below its pre-pandemic level. The employment department says there were 2,100 fewer retail workers in the state in October than there were before the pandemic hit.

It’s too soon to know how the holiday season will turn out for Oregon stores this fall. But there are early signs consumers nationally are growing more cautious, weary from two years of rising prices. Many have spent down savings, and they’re beginning to carry more credit card debt — at higher interest rates.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser for the shopping analytics and forecasting firm Circana, said consumers seem to be holding out for better deals this year. He called Black Friday a disappointment for big retailers.

“Lots was missing, but mostly a sense of urgency,” Cohen wrote last week. He said consumers aren’t worried that retailers will run out of coveted products and seemed unimpressed with the deals stores are offering. They’ve concluded the biggest discounts are online.

Shopping over Thanksgiving weekend was “sluggish” nationally, according to Ted Rossman, retail analyst for the personal finance website Bankrate.

“I’m getting the sense that consumers are in a frugal mood this holiday season,” Rossman wrote in a report last week. He said he expects holiday sales will be flat compared to 2022 once you factor in rising prices.

“Honestly, sales figures that show retailers treading water is about as good as one could reasonably expect in the current economic climate,” Rossman wrote.

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