SALEM — In the battle for power in the Legislature, the future political mix could hinge on a handful of 2022 races not far from the Capitol.

After the 2020 election, Democrats had a 37-22 majority in the House and an 18-12 advantage in the Senate. The three-fifths “supermajorities” let Democrats pass taxes and other financial legislation without any Republican votes. Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, almost always signed bills that reached her desk.

Two years later, the political math in the Capitol is changing. Brown will be gone next January — she’s barred from running again because of state term limits. The May primaries resulted in two antagonists winning the major party nominations:

Former House Speaker Tina Kotek, of Portland, is the Democratic candidate. Former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, of Canby, is the Republican.

Add into the mix former Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime centrist Democrat from Scappoose who resigned her seat to mount a nonaffiliated campaign.

Redistricting required to rebalance the population and demographics of the 60 House and 30 Senate Districts was a bitter battle that ended with a Democratic-drawn political map for 2022. Winners included the fast-growing suburban Portland areas and a new Democratic outpost east of the Cascades in Bend.

The new political landscape still has the most at stake on the west side of the mountains, with opportunities and trouble spots for both parties.

Bryan Iverson, a Prineville consultant for Republican legislative races, has spent a lot of time surveying the new political maps that came out of redistricting for the 2022 election. He has added insight and a personal stake in the outcome as the husband of House Minority Leader Vikki Breese-Iverson, R-Prineville.

Iverson said Republicans will push hard to win Democratic seats in Hood River, Ashland, around Astoria and the Portland suburbs. But the main event will be in some of the districts with the shortest commutes to the capital.

“The battle ground for both the Senate and the House is the Salem area — two Senate seats and four House seats,” Iverson said.

Oliver Muggli, executive director of the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, said the field of key races is wider and believes his party has done well with its nominees. ”We have one of the strongest batches of Democratic candidates in recent history,” Muggli said.

Senate scramble

The voting outcomes in the contested new districts won’t be known until after the Nov. 8 election. But using Dave’s Redistricting, a popular non-partisan website, it’s possible to forecast the prospective political tilt of districts.

In the 30-seat Senate, lawmakers serve four-year terms. Senators elected in 2020 are allowed to finish their terms, but would run for re-election in new districts. There are 16 races on the 2022 ballot.

Dave’s Redistricting rates three of the Oregon Senate races in 2022 as too close to call: Senate District 11: The scramble of districts has forced Sen. Kim Thatcher, R-Salem, to run in a district centered on the Salem area that leans Democratic. Woodburn Mayor Eric Swenson won a three-way Democratic race.

Senate District 16: Rep. Suzanne Weber, R-Tillamook, will face Democrat Melissa Busch, a nurse and union activist. The most evenly partisan district in the state was long the seat of Johnson, the centrist Democrat running as an unaffiliated candidate for governor. Senate District 26: Rep. Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, another casualty of redistricting, is running for the Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Chuck Thomsen, R-Hood River. Bonham will have a tighter political squeeze, running in a district where there is only a slight Republican advantage. Democrat Raz Mason is a private security guard and longtime activist, who also lives in The Dalles.

Confidence in House races

In the 60-seat House, members face elections every two years. Every seat is on the 2022 ballot, using new districts.

Dave’s Redistricting rates 35 Oregon House districts as strongly or likely Democratic wins. Republicans have 15 districts strongly tilted in their direction. Just 10 districts don’t rate a Republican red or Democratic blue hue on the map.

House District 6: Rep. Kim Wallan, R-Medford, facing Democrat Dan Davis, is a rare southern Oregon seat that on paper at least is in play for both parties.

House District 9: Wright, the freshman who won a formerly Democratic seat in Coos Bay, is unopposed, despite a statistically competitive district. Seeing a strong Republican tide backing former President Donald Trump, the two Democrats representing Coos Bay coming into the 2020 election — Sen. Arne Roblan and Rep. Caddy McKeown — did not seek another term. Republicans took both seats that November.

House District 12: The eastern Lane County district has Cottage Grove businesswoman Michelle Emmons as the Democratic nominee. Charlie Conrad, an operations supervisor at the Lane County Events Center, eked out a 100-vote win in a four-candidate Republican race.

House District 15: Taking in areas in and around Albany, it’s the home base of Rep. Shelly Boshart Davis, R-Albany. Boshart Davis has been a key leader in Drazan’s campaign for governor. She will face Democrat Benjamin Watts.

House District 21: Covering areas around north Salem, the race features the return to the ballot for 2002 GOP governor nominee and former state party chair Kevin Mannix. He’s up against Democrat Ramiro Navarro Jr., a veterans’ advocate from Salem.

House District 24: Mc-Minnville is the hub for this Yamhill County district. Republican Lucetta Elmer faces Democrat Victoria Ernst. Rep. Ron Noble, R-McMinnville, opted to run in the GOP primary for the new 6th Congressional District, but finished second in the Republican primary to Mike Erickson.

House District 31: Taking in a suburban-rural mix primarily in Columbia and Yamhill counties, the race is one of a trio of seats in the northwest corner of the state that are up for grabs. Republican Brian Stout was the party nominee in 2020, losing a tight race to Rep. Brad Witt, R-Clatskanie. After a close call against Stout, Witt decided his chances of returning to Salem were better if he moved to Democratic- leaning House District 19 in the southwest portion of Salem. Witt came in third in the Democratic primary. Trying to hold the seat for Democrats is Anthony Sorace, who ran unopposed.

House District 32: The seat just to the west of House District 31 includes Astoria.

Democrat Logan Laity, a Tillamook businessman, and community activist, faces moderate Republican Cyrus Javadi, a Tillamook dentist. Javadi won the primary with a focus on local issues and saying he would prefer Trump not run for president in 2024. The seat was held by Weber, who is running for the Senate.

House District 52: The Hood River area district has former Republican Rep. Jeffrey Helfrich seeking a return to the House. Democrat Darcy Long is a financial advisor and city council member in The Dalles. Incumbent Rep. Anna Williams, D-Hood River, was one of three Democratic women House members who announced they wouldn’t run again because the position didn’t pay enough to support their families.

Democrats are confident in keeping the Hood River and Ashland seats, while expanding their territory west of the Cascades to include a constellation of districts in the Willamette Valley. Iverson said he believes there are other possible pickups for Republicans, with strong efforts mounted in Senate District 10, south of Salem, and House Districts 19, 20 and 22 in the area around the state capital. He’s also eyeing a sweep of the two House districts and one Senate district in the area south and east of Astoria “We feel great about the northwest coastal areas,” Iverson said.